Good time to buy an iPhone?

For many years, smart shoppers have known that December is a dangerous time to buy an Apple product because Apple always announced something new in January at Macworld Expo.  That timing was unfortunate for Christmas purchases; there is nothing worse than getting a brand new computer only to have it replaced by something better a few weeks later.

When Apple announced last month that this would be its last Macworld Expo and that Steve Jobs would not be giving the Keynote address this year, that was a pretty obvious signal that there would not be a major new product announcement at Macworld Expo last week (although the iLife upgrade and new 17″ MacBook Pro were still nice announcements).  Even so, I know that some people looking to buy an iPhone wanted to wait until Macworld Expo was over just to make sure that nothing new was announced.  For example, attorney Stephen Hamilton from Lubbock, Texas recently told me he was waiting for Macworld Expo just in case Apple announced a 32 GB version of the iPhone.

If you, like Stephen, have been waiting to buy an iPhone 3G, is this a safe time to buy?  While it is always impossible to predict what Apple will do in the future, history leads me to suspect that a major new model will not be released until this Summer, although there could still be a minor bump in the iPhone 3G before then.  The original iPhone was released in the U.S. on June 29, 2007.  Almost exactly a year later, the iPhone 3G was released on July 11, 2008.  Phil Schiller, the Apple executive who gave the keynote address at Macworld Expo this year instead of Steve Jobs, dropped a hint to New York Times columnist David Pogue that another iPhone will not come out until June of 2009.  Here is what Pogue wrote:

I spoke with Phil Schiller after his talk. I asked him if he could
be any more specific about why Apple pulled out of the Macworld Expo—to
the heartbreak of the Mac faithful who have loved making the pilgrimage
to this event for 25 years.  He said what the Apple press release said—that Apple stores
introduce more people to Apple’s products in a week than 100 Macworld
Expos. Trade shows just aren’t worth the effort and the money.  But he also pointed out that having to come up with another dazzling
show every January—a huge production, starring knock-’em-dead new
products every year—was unsustainable. He noted that Apple marches to
certain annual product cycles: the holiday season (Novemberish), the
educational buying season (late summer), the iPod product cycle
(October), the iLife development cycle (usually March), the iPhone
cycle (June). January doesn’t fit ANY of them.

It is a little unclear whether it was Schiller or Pogue who said that June is the iPhone cycle, but if it was Schiller, this is further evidence that we won’t see a major new model before this Summer.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that we will have to wait that long to get a minor upgrade.  Recall that the original iPhone came out in 4 GB and 8 GB versions for $499 or $599 in June of 2007, but then in September of 2007, Apple discontinued the 4 GB model and dropped the 8 GB model price to $399.  And then in February of 2008, a $499 16 GB model was released.  Given that there was a minor bump in February of 2008 followed by the new iPhone 3G in July of 2008, we could certainly see a minor bump next month, such as a 32 GB version of the iPhone 3G, followed by a new version of the iPhone in June or July of 2009.

If you are waiting to buy an iPhone, hopefully this will give you a little more insight.  For what it is worth, my wife got an iPhone just last month and I had no hesitation getting it then.